BY DAN HILDEBRAN
The St. Johns River Water Management District is experiencing drought across its entire 18-county territory, with some northern and western areas classified under severe or extreme drought conditions, officials reported during the district’s February Hydrological Conditions presentation covering January data.
January rainfall across the district averaged just under an inch — well below the monthly average of 2.61 inches, a deficit of 1.63 inches. All 18 counties fell more than an inch below their January averages, and 14 counties received less than half their normal rainfall for the month. Nassau County recorded the highest countywide average at 1.66 inches, while Brevard County was the driest at just 0.57 inches.
The short-term picture reflects a longer trend. Over the past 12 months, district-wide rainfall has fallen more than seven inches below the annual average of 51.01 inches. Volusia County was the only county to remain above its 12-month normal. Eight counties in the west and north were more than 10 inches below their annual averages, with Baker and Bradford counties trailing by more than 15 inches. Bradford County recorded the lowest 12-month total at 34.27 inches.
According to the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor assessment, published with data from Feb. 3, all of Florida — including the entire district — was classified as experiencing some level of drought. Central portions of the district were rated abnormally dry, while northern and western areas fell into severe and extreme drought categories.
The dry conditions are raising wildfire concerns. The Keech-Byram Drought Index, a daily measure of wildfire potential, showed seven counties with values at or above 500, a threshold indicating heightened fire risk. Burn bans are in effect in six counties within the district: Alachua, Bradford, Putnam, Flagler, Indian River, and Okeechobee, with several counties beyond the district’s borders also under restrictions.
Lake levels declined across all monitored sites. Lake Brooklyn saw the steepest drop, falling nine-tenths of a foot and ending the month just below its historic average. Lakes Weir, Winnemissett, and Apopka remained above average levels despite small decreases, while Blue Cypress Lake dropped below both its regulation schedule and average water level.
District officials said the water shortage team has been meeting regularly to evaluate conditions, particularly the low groundwater levels in northern and western counties.
The outlook offers limited relief. While a mild La Niña pattern appears to be shifting toward neutral status, the National Weather Service’s longer-term forecasts indicate an increased chance of below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures in the months ahead. Officials emphasized the importance of water conservation.
